Abstract
The devastating impacts of drought are fast becoming a global concern. Zimbabwe is among the countries more severely affected, where drought impacts have led to water shortages, declining yields, and periods of food insecurity, accompanied by economic downturns. In particular, the country’s agricultural sector, mostly comprised of smallholder rainfed systems, is at great risk of drought. In this study, a multimethod approach is applied, including a remote sensing-based analysis of vegetation health data from 1989–2019 to assess the drought hazard, as well as a spatial analysis combined with expert consultations to determine drought vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems. The results show that droughts frequently occur with changing patterns across Zimbabwe. Every district has been affected by drought during the past thirty years, with varying levels of severity and frequency. Severe drought episodes have been observed in 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2015–2016, and 2018–2019. Drought vulnerability and exposure vary substantially in the country, with the south-western provinces of Matabeleland North and South showing particularly high levels. Assessments of high-risk areas, combined with an analysis of the drivers of risk, set the path towards tailor-made adaptation strategies that consider drought frequency and severity, exposure, and vulnerability.
Highlights
Climate change and its diverse environmental and societal impacts have become a major global concern [1,2,3]
This paper aims interplay otfo aaldldrriesssk tchoismgpaponbyenptrsovisidianngaalymzeudlti.dimSuencshioninalfodrrmouaghtitorniskhaasssebsesmenenst tsapteecdificaasllya fcolrear need in ZimbabweZ[im28b,a3b9w,5e.5D,5ro6u]gahnt hdaziasrda, epxproesluimre,iannadrvyulsnteerpabitloitywinafrodrms aatidondirsecsosminpgileddirnotouagdhrtouinghtarisstkrategic and coordinatedindmexa.nTnheerfo. cus lies on agricultural systems, hereby defined as systems including crops and people engaged in agricultural activities, due to the country’s dependence on agriculture [31]
As Vegetation Health Index (VHI) is used as a proxy for monitoring drought development, and as an indicator of land degradation, the results of the VHI analysis must be interpreted with care, in particular in the context of Zimbabwe, where land degradation has been identified as a pressing issue [107]
Summary
Climate change and its diverse environmental and societal impacts have become a major global concern [1,2,3]. It is likely that droughts will increase in the future due to climate change [8,9]. Droughts are classified into four major types, i.e., (i) meteorological, (ii) hydrological, (iii) agricultural, and (iv) socio-economic [12]. Since drought development cannot solely be attributed to climate drivers, the consideration of socio-economic preconditions through a coupled perspective on human-environment systems is crucial [13,14,15]. These fields are often considered in isolation from each other, ignoring the complex feedback between natural and human drivers [11]
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