Drought Risk Assessment of Winter Wheat at Different Growth Stages in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain Based on Nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Crop Coefficient

Abstract

Soil moisture plays a crucial role in determining the yield of winter wheat. The Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) Plain is the main growing area of winter wheat in China, and frequent occurrence of drought seriously restricts regional agricultural development. Hence, a daily-scale Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI), based on winter wheat crop coefficient (Kc), was developed in the present study to evaluate the impact of drought characteristics on winter wheat in different growth stages. Results showed that the water demand for winter wheat decreased with the increase in latitude, and the water shortage was affected by effective precipitation, showing a decreasing trend from the middle to both sides in the HHH Plain. Water demand and water shortage showed an increasing trend at the jointing stage and heading stage, while other growth stages showed a decreasing trend. The spatial distributions of drought duration and intensity were consistent, which were higher in the northern region than in the southern region. Moreover, the water shortage and drought intensity at the jointing stage and heading stage showed an increasing trend. The drought had the greatest impact on winter wheat yield at the tillering stage, jointing stage, and heading stage, and the proportions of drought risk vulnerability in these three stages accounted for 0.25, 0.21, and 0.19, respectively. The high-value areas of winter wheat loss due to drought were mainly distributed in the northeast and south-central regions.