Abstract
China has the world’s largest population and a large and critically important agricultural sector. Sixty-five percent of the Chinese population lives on paddy rice. However, drought disasters frequently afflict China’s rural population and threate n its food security. It is therefore of paramount importance to assess the drought risk of paddy in China. We establish a quantitative risk assessment model for the drought risk of mid-season paddy and regional-specific vulnerability curves, evaluate the drought risk of mid-season paddy, and compile a series of risk maps. The drought disaster risk rating results indicate that risk is highest in Northeast China, followed by Northwest China, North China, and South China, showing a decreasing trend from north to south. The mid-season paddy area of Northeast China has the highest mean risk index (0.58–0.71), followed by northwestern provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang (0.5–0.6), while risk indices in provinces of North China such as Hebei and Shandong range from 0.3–0.5, and the southern provinces show a relatively low level of risk. This article presents the preliminary results of a scientific inquiry on where the high drought risk areas of mid-season paddy are and how high the risk is. These results provide a regional-specific basis for drought risk governance of paddy in China.
Highlights
Drought is the most widespread natural disaster and causes the biggest losses in agriculture around the world
Areas of medium drought expanded to 33.8 percent and areas of light drought decreased to 58.7 percent, while the drought-free areas disappeared. Under droughts of this recurrence interval, mid-season paddy suffered from drought to various degrees, with medium level and more severe droughts mainly concentrated in Northwest China, North China, and the northern part of the Yangtze River Basin
Under droughts of this recurrence interval, mid-season paddy in China suffered from drought above the medium level and areas of exceptional drought accounted for 43.1 percent of the entire mid-season paddy areas
Summary
Drought is the most widespread natural disaster and causes the biggest losses in agriculture around the world. Paddy rice is the most important grain crop in China. Since mid-season paddy constitutes the highest proportion of paddy yield and is most widespread, we studied the drought risk during its growing season. We established regional-specific drought vulnerability curves, conducted an assessment of drought risk nationwide, and analyzed the temporal-spatial patterns in order to provide a scientific basis for regional-specific drought disaster reduction of paddy. This is of great significance to reducing drought losses and stabilizing grain production in China
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