Abstract
Agriculture is a sector easily affected by meteorological conditions. Crop yield reduction, even regional conflicts, may occur during a drought. It is extremely important to improve the state of our knowledge on agricultural drought risk. This study has proposed a new method (vulnerability surfaces) for assessing vulnerability quantitatively and continuously by including the environmental variable as an additional perspective on exposure and assessed global maize drought risk based on these surfaces. In this research, based on the Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model, irrigation scenarios were adopted to fit “Loss rate-Drought index-Environmental indicator (L-D-E)” vulnerability surfaces by constructing a database suitable for risk assessment on a large scale. Global maize drought risk was quantitatively assessed based on its optimal vulnerability surface. The results showed an R2 for the optimal vulnerability surface of 0.9934, with coarse fragment content as the environmental indicator. The expected global average annual yield loss rate due to drought was 19.18%. The global average yield loss rate due to drought with different return periods (10a, 20a, 50a, and 100a) was 29.18%, 32.76%, 36.89%, and 38.26%, respectively. From a global perspective, Central Asia, the Iberian Peninsula, Eastern Africa, the Midwestern United States, Chile, and Brazil are the areas with the highest maize drought risk. The vulnerability surface is a further development of the vulnerability curve as a continuous expression of vulnerability and considers differences in environmental factors. It can reflect the spatial heterogeneity of crop vulnerability and can be applied in large-scale risk assessment research.
Highlights
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report confirmed that, in general, global temperatures rose from 1880 to 2012, with a linear trend of 0.85 ◦C/100a
“L-D-E” Vulnerability Surface of Maize Both actual and simulated global maize yields are concentrated in the vicinity of the 1:1 line
The “L-D-E” vulnerability surface was best fitted with coarse fragment content (CFRAG) as the environmental indicator
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report confirmed that, in general, global temperatures rose from 1880 to 2012, with a linear trend of 0.85 ◦C/100a. Temperature increases are expected to characterize global climate change in the 21st century. By the end of the 21st century, the global average temperature will have increased by at least 1.5 ◦C compared with the period from 1850 to 1900 [1]. The probability of severe and persistent droughts may increase in the future under the influence of climate change and anthropogenic forcing [2,3]. Agriculture is dependent on climate conditions and is greatly influenced by climate change [5,6]. Reducing drought risk has become an important topic in disaster risk research and is critical for promoting global food security and sustainable agricultural development
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