Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea

Abstract

Summary An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilises the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014–2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014–2040), middle phase (MP, 2041–2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071–2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039–2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) −3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of −2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6.6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial–temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.