Abstract
In recent years, two drought monitoring systems have been developed in the Czech Republic based on the SoilClim and AVISO soil moisture models. The former is run by Mendel University and Global Change Research Institute (CAS), while the latter, by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. SoilClim is based more on real soil properties and aimed primarily at agriculture, while AVISO complements the system with more theoretical presumptions about soil, showing, rather, climatological potential. Both soil moisture models were complemented by forecasts on a daily basis, taking meteorological inputs from NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models and thus giving short- to mid-range outlooks up to 9 days ahead. Validation of the soil moisture and drought intensity prediction was performed and is presented in this article showing its prediction reliability and potential. In the analysis, we focus mainly on the past year, 2017. The tool has strong predictive power for soil moisture and drought intensity so it is suitable for farmers who need to make decisions about irrigation and production activities. The presented system is fully functional and can be applied in the coming years.
Highlights
Drought forecast is important for various fields of human activity, such as agriculture, hydrology, the energy sector, human health, etc. (e.g., [1,2,3])
We present both soil moisture models; we present the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models used as input into these models to retrieve the soil moisture forecast, and in the end, we give the results of input into these models to retrieve the soil moisture forecast, and in the end, we give the results of the the validation of the outputs of both systems
In the case of SoilClim, we use aggregated values over all grids in Republic, while in the case of AVISO, we used an average over all stations (198 automatic stations) in the Czech Republic, while in the case of AVISO, we used an average over all stations
Summary
Drought forecast is important for various fields of human activity, such as agriculture, hydrology, the energy sector, human health, etc. (e.g., [1,2,3]). Drought forecast is important for various fields of human activity, such as agriculture, hydrology, the energy sector, human health, etc. There are many existing drought monitoring systems in the world nowadays. An overview of some of these can be found on the National Drought. Some of the systems include a forecast component as well. To predict drought conditions, one can either consider statistical or dynamical methods [4]. The former are based on the long-term correlation of global circulation patterns with the regional weather, while the latter utilize the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and their ensembles. The simplest drought forecast includes information on air temperature and precipitation and their anomalies within
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