Abstract
Abstract Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring of hydrological drought in a future period to examine the impact of climate change on the discharging flow of the Zard River basin in Iran. Zard River is an important supplier of fresh and agricultural water in a vast area of Khuzestan province in Iran. A continuous rainfall-runoff model based on Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) algorithm was applied to simulate the discharge flow under 10 scenarios (obtained from LARS-WG.6 software) of future climate change. Then, the Stream-flow Drought Index (SDI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for each climate change scenario for the future period (2041–2060). The results of the meteorological drought assessment showed that near normal and moderate droughts had higher proportions among other drought conditions. Moreover, the hydrological drought assessment showed the occurrence of two new droughts (severe and extreme) conditions for the future period (2041–2060) that has never happened in the past (1997–2016).
Highlights
Drought and flood are two major events in Iran’s climate
The effect of drought on society is due to the interaction between a natural phenomenon and the people who need water
In the manual and automatic calibration, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was used as the objective function
Summary
In addition to precipitation patterns, other extreme climatic events such as severe temperature and low relative humidity often happen along with drought in many parts of the world, which can dramatically. Drought is caused by a shortage of water in an area, leading to different effects in different parts, especially in the environment. The effect of drought on society is due to the interaction between a natural phenomenon (lower precipitation can be caused by natural climate change) and the people who need water. The frequency, duration, and intensity of low precipitation are studied. The effects of drought on rivers’ discharge, changes in soil moisture and its human consequences are considered (Lioyd Hughes & Saunders ; Golian et al ; Emadodin et al )
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