Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India

Varsha Pandey,George P Petropoulos,Rajesh Kumar Mall,Sudhir K Singh,Prashant K Srivastava

doi:10.3390/su13031042

Abstract

Drought hazard mapping and its trend analysis has become indispensable due to the aggravated impact of drought in the era of climate change. Sparse observational networks with minimal maintenance limit the spatio-temporal coverage of precipitation data, which has been a major constraint in the effective drought monitoring. In this study, high-resolution satellite-derived Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data has been used for computation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The study was carried out in Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh, India, known for its substantial drought occurrences with poor drought management plans and lack of effective preparedness. Very limited studies have been carried out in assessing the spatio-temporal drought in this region. This study aims to identify district-wide drought and its trend characterization from 1981 to 2018. The run theory was applied for quantitative drought assessment; whereas, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test was performed for trend analysis at seasonal and annual time steps. Results indicated an average of nine severe drought events in all the districts in the last 38 years, and the most intense drought was recorded for the Jalaun district (1983–1985). A significant decreasing trend is observed for the SPI1 (at 95% confidence level) during the post-monsoon season, with the magnitude varying from −0.16 to −0.33 mm/month. This indicates the increasing severity of meteorological drought in the area. Moreover, a non-significant falling trend for short-term drought (SPI1 and SPI3) annually and short- and medium-term drought (SPI1, SPI3, and SPI6) in winter months have been also observed for all the districts. The output of the current study would be utilized in better understanding of the drought condition through elaborate trend analysis of the SPI pattern and thus helps the policy makers to devise a drought management plan to handle the water crisis, food security, and in turn the betterment of the inhabitants.

Highlights

IntroductionClimate change imposes severe threats on water regimes by altering the seasonal and inter-annual precipitation patterns
The results indicated that all the districts experienced nearly similar drought events in almost common drought years (Figure 4)
The high-resolution satellite precipitation data products have been proven as an effective alternative data source for spatio-temporal drought analysis

Summary

Introduction

Climate change imposes severe threats on water regimes by altering the seasonal and inter-annual precipitation patterns. The trend analysis of the precipitation performed by several studies has highlighted that climate change may transform the arid regions to more arid and wet regions to wetter [1,2]. Climate change is anticipated to increase the intensity, duration, and severity of droughts and other hydrological extremes that have become a heuristic area for the process research and water resource management practices [3,4]. Droughts have a distinct impact on the wellbeing of society and the environment by reducing gross primary productivity and estimated to affects about 55 million

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion