Abstract
Droughts will increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spread under climate change. Drought affects numerous sectors in society and the natural environment, including short-term reduced crop production, social conflict over water allocation, severe outmigration, and eventual famine. Early action can prevent escalation of impacts, requiring drought early warning systems (DEWSs) that give current assessments and sufficient notice for active risk management. While most droughts are relatively slow in onset, often resulting in late responses, flash droughts are becoming more frequent, and their sudden onset poses challenging demands on DEWSs for timely communication. We examine several DEWSs at global, regional, and national scales, with a special emphasis on agri-food systems. Many of these have been successful, such as some of the responses to 2015–2017 droughts in Africa and Latin America. Successful examples show that early involvement of stakeholders, from DEWS development to implementation, is crucial. In addition, regional and global cooperation can cross-fertilize with new ideas, reduce reaction time, and raise efficiency. Broadening partnerships also includes recruiting citizen science and including seemingly subjective indigenous knowledge that can improve monitoring, data collection, and uptake of response measures. More precise and more useful DEWSs in agri-food systems will prove even more cost-effective in averting the need for emergency responses, improving global food security.
Highlights
Two comprehensive reviews on drought early warning systems (DEWSs) have been published in the past decade [1,2]
An extensive study and stakeholder consultation by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) proposed that this transformation should focus on four crucial action areas [16]: (1) rerouting rural farming and rural livelihoods to new sustainable, equitable trajectories; (2) de-risking livelihoods, farms, and value chains from extreme climatic events, including the implementation of DEWS; (3) reducing food system emissions; (4) realigning policies and finance to arrive at sustainable food systems [16]
DEWSs have been in place for decades in some countries, such as Canada, where a Forage Drought Early Warning System (FoDEWS) has been operative since 1982 to manage cattle grazing on prairie pastures
Summary
Two comprehensive reviews on drought early warning systems (DEWSs) have been published in the past decade [1,2]. To improve the decision-making process, the authors propose a formal information pedigree with reliable, accurate, and precise information identifying, for users, the danger levels regarding production impacts, so that all will realize the economic and social benefits of DEWSs and support action This requires strong leadership with an active attitude to droughts, which often have a slow onset that results in a delayed, reactive response. Funk et al (2019) reviewed 30 years of DEWSs, focusing on famine avoidance as we strive for global food security [2] They stressed how DEWSs allow for finite resources to be implemented most effectively in times of drought, making the largest positive impact They focused on the Famine Early Warning Systems Network DEWS, from its inception following the mid-1980s droughts in the Sahel, in particular describing how food insecurities are anticipated, quickly identified, targeted, and responded to. We believe these new points will enrich the debate and serve the DEWS community and beyond to its beneficiaries
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