Drought assessment of terrestrial ecosystems in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Abstract

Droughts resulting from global warming severely hamper the healthy development of terrestrial vegetation ecosystems. This paper defines a terrestrial vegetation ecological drought index, i.e., the Standardized Water Supply–Demand Index (SSDI), based on the water balance method using the same calculation model as the SPEI. The theory of run is used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of the drought characteristics in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). The results show that (1) the drought events monitored by the SSDI were in good agreement with historical drought events, and the correlation coefficient between SSDI and NDVI (0.94) was significantly higher than that between SPEI and NDVI (0.88). (2) About 55.4% of the regions in the YRB experienced more than 13 droughts, and about 41.4% of the regions had an average drought duration of more than 3.1 months. In the northern part of the YRB, droughts tend to develop in a short-term high frequency, while in the southern part of the YRB, there is a long-term low-frequency development trend. Nearly 24.5% of the regions have an average drought intensity of more than 1.4, and most of them are located in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. (3) Over the last 18 years, about 79.5% of the regions in the YRB showed an increasing trend in SSDI, of which 36.8% showed an increasing trend of more than 0.04/yr. In addition, 40.4% of the regions showed a significant upward trend. Precisely analyzing the spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the YRB is critical for drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources and could provide a theoretical basis for effective water resource allocation and drought relief.