Drought area, intensity and frequency changes in China under climate warming, 1961–2014

Abstract

Increasing global temperatures and frequency of low precipitation have made drought a major natural disaster around the world. Drought is a major threat to China's food security. Thus, the recent abnormal characteristics of Chinese droughts warrant further study. We therefore examined daily air temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2014 at 572 Chinese meteorological stations. We used an improved version of Meteorological Drought Composite Index (MCI) as a drought indicator to analyze the spatial variation and temporal changes of the drought severity, frequency, duration, and location. China's drought-affected area has expanded, and the severity and frequency have increased due to climate warming. The drought-affected areas are also changing, with drought intensifying in the north but increasing even more in the south, especially for severe drought. Drought was most widespread and sustained in the late 1990s and early 2000s, primarily in the southern Yellow River Basin and the northern Yangtze River Basin. Frequency analysis revealed >30% drought frequency (% of total years) in the western and eastern parts of northwestern China and in eastern, northern, and southwestern China. Drought frequency was higher in the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins. China's drought intensity, duration, and frequency were generally higher in the north and east than in the south and west; however, these parameters increased more rapidly in the south. Droughts occurred year-round in China, but the occurrence, range, duration, and frequency differed among years and regions. Our results offer insights into the development of drought in China and provide support for disaster risk assessment and response planning.