Abstract
Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the precipitation records from 1952 to 2000, the drought situation over the East River basin in southern China was analyzed. Different drought categories were then selected to represent different drought conditions. The Conditional Reliability Module (CRM) in the Water Right Analysis Package (WRAP) was used to investigate water supply reliability over the East River basin under several supply scenarios, which were created based on different SPI values and different initial reservoir storage levels. The result of the study revealed that reservoir storage plays a crucial role in maintaining the water supply security. To ensure an acceptable reliability of water supply in the region, the Xinfengjiang Reservoir, which is the biggest reservoir in the East River basin, should keep more than 60% of its conservative storage capacity at the beginning of the dry season of the basin, i.e. October.
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