Abstract
Abstract. Droughts are a naturally re-occurring phenomena that result in economic and societal losses. Yet, the most historic droughts that occurred in the 1930s and 1950s in the Great Plains and western United States were both shorter in duration and less severe than megadroughts that have plagued the region in the past. Roughly 4200 years ago, a ∼150-year long megadrought occurred in the central Rocky Mountains, as indicated by sedimentary pollen evidence documenting a brief and unique change in vegetation composition from Long Lake, southeastern Wyoming. Neighbouring the central Rocky Mountains, several dune fields reactivated in the western Great Plains around this time period illustrating a severe regional drought. While sedimentary pollen provides evidence of past drought, paleoecological evidence does not provide context for the climate mechanisms that may have caused the drought. Thus, a modern climate analogue technique was applied to the sedimentary pollen and regional dune reactivation evidence identified from the region to provide a conceptual framework for exploring possible mechanisms responsible for the observed ecological changes. The modern climate analogues of 2002/2012 illustrate that warm and dry conditions persisted through the growing season and were associated with anomalously higher-than-normal geopotential heights centred over the Great Plains. In the spring, higher-than-normal heights suppressed moisture transport via the low-level jet from the Gulf of Mexico creating a more southwesterly component of flow. In the summer, higher-than-normal heights persisted over the northern Great Plains resulting in a wind shift with an easterly component of flow, drawing in dry continental air into the study region. In both cases, lower-than-normal moisture in the atmosphere (via 850 mbar specific humidity) inhibited uplift and potential precipitation. Thus, if the present scenario existed during the 4.2 ka drought, the associated climatic responses are consistent with local and regional proxy data suggesting regional drought conditions in the central Rocky Mountains and western Great Plains.
Highlights
Droughts are a regular climatic feature in the Great Plains and western United States (US)
Spring (MAM) precipitation rate composite-anomaly values indicate a shift towards significantly drier-than-normal conditions across the entire study region (Fig. 5b), which persisted through the summer (JJA, Fig. 5c) and into the fall (SON, Fig. 5d)
Modern climate analogues clearly demonstrate how drought conditions prevailed during the 2002/2012 growing season, as suggested by Schmeisser et al (2010) and Chang and Smith (2001), offering a potential analogue for drought conditions ∼ 4200 cal yr BP
Summary
Droughts are a regular climatic feature in the Great Plains and western United States (US). As global temperatures continue to rise as a result of anthropogenically induced climate change (IPCC, 2014), drought vulnerability is predicted to increase in the Great Plains and western US (Garfin et al, 2013). When compared to proxy data, modern era droughts were both shorter in duration and less severe than megadroughts that have plagued the region in the past (Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998; Cook et al, 2010). Megadroughts can be defined as persistent drought events that last decades to centuries and generally have a large spatial extent (Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998).
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