Abstract
In recent years, alternating periods of floods and droughts, possibly related to climate change and/or human activity, have occurred in the Liao River Basin of China. To monitor and gain a deep understanding of the frequency and severity of the hydro-meteorological extreme events in the Liao River Basin in the past 30 years, the total storage deficit index (TSDI) is established by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-based terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs) and the general regression neural network (GRNN)-predicted TWSA. Results indicate that the GRNN model trained with GRACE-based TWSA, model-simulated soil moisture, and precipitation observations was optimal, and the correlation coefficient and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicted TWSA and GRACE TWSA for the testing period equal 0.90 and 18 mm, respectively. The drought and flood conditions monitored by the TSDI were consistent with those of previous studies and records. The extreme climate events could indirectly reflect the status of the regional hydrological cycle. By monitoring the extreme climate events in the study area with TSDI, which was based on the TWSA of GRACE and GRNN, the decision of water resource management in the Liao River Basin could be made reasonably.
Highlights
The Liao River Basin in China is characterized by an arid and semi-arid climate [1]
This paper aims to (1) compare Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes of Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) mascon solutions with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) spherical harmonic solutions, (2) predict terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs) for the Liao River Basin in China beyond the GRACE period with general regression neural network (GRNN) models, and (3) monitor droughts and floods across RemothteeSeLnisa. o20R18i,v1e0r, 1B1a68sin with a drought index, where the total storage deficit index (TSDI), which i3sof 21 based on a long-term TWSA time series
The amplitudes of GRACE spherical harmonic-based TWSA and JPL mascon-based TWSA varied from −8.38 cm to 8.46 cm and −5.50 cm to 8.56 cm respectively
Summary
The Liao River Basin in China is characterized by an arid and semi-arid climate [1]. The Liao River Basin, affected by the alternating effects of warm and moist air in the Southeast Pacific and cold air from the west or north, is prone to rainstorms [5]. Rainstorms account for a large proportion of annual precipitation, and cause frequent flooding in the basin. The river basin suffers from different degrees of drought intensity nearly each year; spring drought is severe [6]. These hazards harm the national economy, human life, and property. A need is created to monitor and/or predict occurrences of drought and flood timely and effectively
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