Abstract
Despite the intuitive connection between drought and mortality, we still lack a sound quantitative synthesis of evidence drawn from the available data. In this study, we estimate the pooled under-five death rates (U5DR) and assess the effect of drought on child death in Ethiopia. Small-scale mortality surveys were searched from the Complex Emergency Database and then aggregated spatially and temporally with drought exposure data from the Global Drought Monitor and food insecurity data from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. A Bayesian Poisson meta-analysis was performed on 88 surveys conducted in Ethiopia between 2009 and 2014, consisting of 55,219 under-five children. The pooled U5DR was estimated at 0.323/10,000/day (95% credible interval, CrI: 0.254–0.397), which is below both the emergency and the baseline death rate thresholds of sub-Saharan Africa. We failed to find a plausible association between drought and U5DR. However, minimal food insecure areas showed elevated U5DR compared to stressed food insecure areas. Furthermore, the U5DR increases as the prevalence of acute malnutrition increases. Targeted interventions to improve the underlying causes of child malnutrition are crucial. Further, revising and updating the existing mortality thresholds, both the baseline and the emergency, is recommended.
Highlights
Despite the intuitive connection between drought and mortality, we still lack a sound quantitative synthesis of evidence drawn from the available data
To address this research gap and provide a sound quantitative synthesis, we explored the effect of drought on child mortality in Ethiopia between 2009 and 2014 considering real-time data on the intensity of drought exposure
The surveys were conducted between January 2009 and December 2014 by humanitarian agencies operating in Ethiopia
Summary
Despite the intuitive connection between drought and mortality, we still lack a sound quantitative synthesis of evidence drawn from the available data. The specific aims of the study were to provide a pooled estimate of the under-five death rates (U5DR) and to investigate the effect of drought on child death while controlling for the possible contextual factors, identified based on the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) conceptual framework of malnutrition[13, 14] and available data. These factors include acute malnutrition, measles-containing vaccination (MCV), food insecurity, and livelihood zones
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