Abstract
Focusing on the shortages of moisture estimation and time scale in the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), this study proposed a new Palmer variant by introducing the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in hydrologic accounting module, and modifying the standardization process to make the index capable for monitoring droughts at short time scales. The performance of the newly generated index was evaluated over the Yellow River Basin (YRB) during 1961–2012. For time scale verification, the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 3-month time scale were employed. Results show that the new Palmer variant is highly correlated with SPI and SPEI, combined with a more stable behavior in drought frequency than original scPDSI. For drought trend detection, this new index is more inclined to reflect comprehensive moisture conditions and reveals a different spatial pattern from SPI and SPEI in winter. Besides, two remote sensing products of soil moisture and vegetation were also employed for comparison. Given their general consistent behaviors in monitoring the spatiotemporal evolution of the 2000 drought, it is suggested that the new Palmer variant is a good indicator for monitoring soil moisture variation and the dynamics of vegetation growth.
Highlights
Drought is one of the costliest natural hazards which have caused tremendous disruptions to past and modern societies [1]
Based on the procedure of the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), a new Palmer variant was proposed to address the shortages of coarse moisture estimation and ambiguous time scale
The newly generated Palmer variant is denoted as Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)-scPDSI9, and its performance was assessed over the Yellow River Basin (YRB) during 1961–2012
Summary
Drought is one of the costliest natural hazards which have caused tremendous disruptions to past and modern societies [1]. Drought affects both surface and groundwater resources, which potentially threaten crop production, water quality, waterborne transportation, power generation, economy and social activities [2]. The main difficulty of this work lies in how to pinpoint the onset and termination time of a drought accurately, as well as to quantify its characteristics like duration, severity, and affecting area [7]. Drought indices are one of the effective tools which allow timely identification and characterization of emerging drought conditions [8]
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