Drought amnesia: lessons from protected areas in the eastern Lowveld of South Africa

Abstract

Protected areas (PAs) adjacent to the Kruger National Park (KNP) are divided into fenced and unfenced properties. We discuss land-use development to provide context of how these savannas have evolved over the past century. Although the PAs have embraced the basic philosophies of the KNP management approach and have similar high-level objectives, they function at different spatial, and consequently temporal scales, largely because of fencing and the subsequent provision of water in these areas. We examine bottom up (environmental, rainfall) conditions using rainfall as a percentage of the mean and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) leading into five drought periods dating back to 1982/1983 and top-down drivers focusing on animal number and type (geo-referenced data from annual helicopter counts) on fenced versus areas open to the larger KNP system. We then examine the response variables, grass species composition, cover and standing crop (all using the Multiple Indicator Method) and the capacity of these to attain a variety of potential land use objectives. Using a dataset spanning some 30 years, we provide scenarios that offer an early warning system to managers irrespective of land use objectives and management approach (laissez-faire or active).