Abstract
ASEAN is a dynamic and diverse region which has experienced rapid urbanization and population growth. Their energy demand grew by 60% in the last 15 years. In 2013, about 3.6% of global greenhouse-gas emissions was emitted from this region and the share is expected to rise substantially. Hence, a better understanding of driving forces of the changes in CO2 emissions is important to tackle global climate change and develop appropriate policies. Using IPAT combined with variance analysis, this study aims to identify the main driving factors of CO2 emissions for ASEAN and four selected countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand) during 1971–2013. The results show that population growth and economic growth were the main driving factors for increasing CO2 emissions for most of the countries. Fossil fuels play an important role in increasing CO2 emissions, however the growth in emissions was compensated by improved energy efficiency and carbon intensity of fossil energy. The results imply that to decouple energy use from high levels of emissions is important. Proper energy management through fuel substitution and decreasing emission intensity through technological upgrades have considerable potential to cut emissions.
Highlights
Global warming is one of the most important current issues in the world due to its negative consequences to the environment
It can be seen that the seen that the increase in the growth rate of the CO2 emission (I) is a combination of the increase increase in the growth rate of the CO2 emission (I) is a combination of the increase of population (P), of population (P), per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (A), fuel mix (F), and the reductions of energy intensity (E) and per capita GDP (A), fuel mix (F), and the reductions of energy intensity (E) and emission intensity of emission energy the trends of ASEAN
The ASEAN CO2 emission decomposition results is shown in Figure 9)
Summary
Global warming is one of the most important current issues in the world due to its negative consequences to the environment. The consumption of energy, has been considered among the main factors contributing to the climate change in the past decades. According to the IPCC [1], “Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0 ◦ C of global warming above re-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8 ◦ C to 1.2 ◦ C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5 ◦ C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate”. Nordhaus [2] stated that “The ultimate source of global warming is the burning of fossil fuel (or carbon-based) fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, which leads to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 )”.
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