Abstract
Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, is facing serious air pollution challenges—especially during the cold and long winter months—mainly due to fossil fuel combustion. This study investigates the socioeconomic drivers of the sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration changes in Ulaanbaatar between 2005 and 2015 by applying the index decomposition analysis (IDA) method. Five socio-economic driving forces are considered in the decomposition analysis. All the driving forces contributed to more air pollution concentration changes in 2015 than in 2005, despite the decreasing trends of decomposition results for the period of 2010–2015. In general, economic growth, pollution intensity, and energy intensity significantly contributed to the changes of air pollutant concentrations, while energy structure and population growth had marginal effects. Finally, appropriate policy recommendations are proposed to the local government so that they can initiate feasible policies to effectively reduce air pollution, protect human health, and respond to climate change in Ulaanbaatar.
Highlights
Migration to Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, has increased the population by 55% over the past fifteen years
This study investigates the changes of three air pollutant concentrations for the period of 2005–2015 in Ulaanbaatar by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisa Index (LMDI) method so that the driving forces for the changes of these air pollutant concentrations can be identified
Five socio-economic driving forces are considered in the decomposition analysis: i.e., pollution intensity, energy structure, energy intensity, economic growth, and population growth
Summary
Migration to Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, has increased the population by 55% over the past fifteen years. This city has experienced rapid economic growth [2]. This city relies on fossil fuels (see Appendix A, Figures A1 and A2) to achieve its gross domestic product (GDP) growth and to support its rapid urbanization, leading to concerns of both air quality deterioration and climate change. Over 790,000 people reside in settlements without water, sanitation, or basic infrastructure—often in traditional Mongolian felt tents, known as gers, where these people rely on wood or coal burning stoves for cooking and heating [5]. Increasing public and private transport contributes to the air pollution, as the total number of vehicles increased from 75,000 in 2005 to 383,263 in 2017 [6]
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