DRIVING FORCES AND CONSTRAINTS ANALYSIS IN FORECASTS OF AIR TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT // ANALIZA POKRETAČKIH SNAGA I OGRANIČENJA U PROGNOZAMA RAZVOJA AVIOPRIJEVOZA

Abstract

Objective forecasting of the aviation development dynamics is one of the most sensitive, unpredictable and critical points in the airline management activities. Forecasts and projections of the airline industry are very complex since they include a lot of market micro-macro elements influencing future demand and supply. High depending correlation of the aviation industry with economy growth is followed by the cyclical and seasonal changes on the air transport market. It emphasize the importance of the choice of adequate forecasting method in the projections quantification. Air carriers dominantly use three groups of forecasting methods-qualitative, causal and time series projections. ICAO and IATA forecasts are the most recognized worldwide, followed by the forecasts of aircraft manufacturers. European aviation forecasts use very often Eurocontrol predictions. Croatian air transport market is not covered by the adequate passenger and cargo forecasts. The contribution to the relevant forecasting factors will be supplemented by the selective mathematics modelling. Conclusions of the paper give directions to the activities for better understanding of cohesive and synchronized image of driving forces and constraints on global and regional air transport markets.