Driving forces analysis of land-use pattern changes based on logistic regression model in the farming-pastoral zone:A case study of Ongiud Banner,Inner Mongolia

Abstract

Land use and land cover change(LUCC) research has been given close attention during the past decade,because of the pivotal role of LUCC in many aspects like global climatic change,food security,soil degradation and biodiversity.This study attempts to identify how much driving forces of land-use changes can be understood through logistic regression analysis. So,spatial statistical models of the proximate causes of different processes of the land-use change in the farming-pastoral zone(Inner Mongolia) were developed,taking into account the spatial variability of the land-use change processes.The descriptive spatial models developed here suggested some important factors driving the land-use changes that can be related to some well-established theoretical frameworks.The explanatory variables of the spatial model of arable land suggest a model,where conversion to arable land is controlled by the rural settlements and agro-climatic zones.Grassland conversion is controlled by the distance to the nearest rural settlement,organic matter in the soil and distance to the nearest river.Expansion of forest is also controlled by the rural settlements and altitude.Spatial heterogeneity as well as the variability in time of land-use change processes affect human ability to use regression models for wide ranging extrapolations.These spatial models can identify the main driving forces of different land-use changes through validation of the logistic regression model of the grass expansion.