Driving force model to evaluate China's photovoltaic industry: Historical and future trends

Abstract

The depletion of traditional energy sources and severe environmental pollution are hindrances in meeting the increasing energy demands of the growing global population. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has been widely applied in China to replace traditional energy. The factors that affect the development of the PV industry in China are complex. This research sheds light on the development process of the PV industry in China by considering the PV installed capacity as an indicator of industrial development. A quantitative evaluation method was established to assess the PV industry and its influencing factors by developing a driving force model. This model combines the methods of factor quantification and multiple regression analysis by considering demand, market, policy, technology, and enterprise factors. The results show that from 2006 to 2008, policy factors played the most important role accounting for about 50% of the total impact, and since 2009, the impacts of technology and demand factors are more significant in the PV industry from the aspects of supply and demand accounting for 36% and 32%, respectively. The future trends of PV industry are predicted based on the evolution of the influencing factors. If guided by existing policies, the PV installed capacity will stabilize at 403 GW in 2025. The emphasis on energy storage technology in the future will also significantly promote the PV industry enabling it to reach 773 GW, and thereby, reduce about 0.87 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in that year compared to that with coal-based thermal power generation. This study provides a theoretical basis for multiple factor analysis in the photovoltaic industry and a deeper understanding for policy makers to coordinate the structure of energy generation in China in the future.