Driving factors of soil organic carbon fractions over New South Wales, Australia

Abstract

We modelled and mapped the distribution of three principal soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions across New South Wales and gained insights into the factors controlling their distribution. Carbon fractions are important for modelling soil carbon dynamics for carbon accounting, and as a potential indicator of soil quality. We considered particulate organic carbon (POC), humic organic carbon (HOC) and resistant organic carbon (ROC), which represent fractions of increasing bio-chemical stability. A dataset of 427 NSW profiles with mid-infrared (MIR) derived carbon fractions and a set of 16 predictor variables were applied. Random Forest and multiple linear regression techniques were applied, for depth intervals to 30 cm.The derived models and maps were of moderate strength, with validation results revealing Lin's concordance values for the 0–30 cm depth interval of 0.79 for total SOC stocks and 0.60 to 0.74 for the fraction stocks. Maps of mean stocks, and upper and lower 95% prediction intervals are presented. Absolute stocks (in Mg ha−1) of each fraction have a strong linear relationship with total SOC and are controlled by similar environmental and land management factors, normally increasing in a systematic way with increasingly moist climate (considering rainfall and temperatures), increasing mafic lithology (associated with more fertile, clay rich soils) and less disturbed land uses with higher vegetation cover.The environmental factors influencing the relative proportions of each fraction (% of total SOC) are more complex, but climate and lithology appear to be dominant, in addition to depth in profile. An SOC vulnerability index is mapped over the State, identifying areas where the stored carbon is most vulnerable to land management or environmental change. Our findings add to the understanding of factors driving the distribution of soil carbon and its fractions, which may ultimately contribute to more effective climate change mitigation programs.