Driving Factors of CO2 Emissions in China’s Power Industry: Relative Importance Analysis Based on Spatial Durbin Model

Abstract

The low-carbon transformation of the power industry is of great significance to realize the carbon peak in advance. However, almost a third of China’s CO2 emissions came from the power sector in 2019. This paper aimed to identify the key drivers of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry with the consideration of spatial autocorrelation. The spatial Durbin model and relative importance analysis were combined based on Chinese provincial data from 2003 to 2019. This combination demonstrated that GDP, the power supply structure and energy intensity are the key drivers of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry. The self-supply ratio of electricity and the spatial spillover effect have a slight effect on increasing CO2 emissions. The energy demand structure and CO2 emission intensity of thermal power have a positive effect, although it is the lowest. Second, the positive impact of GDP on CO2 emissions is decreasing, but that of the power supply structure and energy intensity is increasing. Third, the energy demand of the industrial and residential sectors has a greater impact on CO2 emissions than that of construction and transportation. For achieving the CO2 emission peak in advance, governments should give priority to developing renewable power and regional electricity trade rather than upgrading thermal power generation. They should also focus on promoting energy-saving technology, especially tapping the energy-saving potential of the industry and resident sectors.