Driving factors of CO2 emissions and nexus with economic growth, development and human health in the Top Ten emitting countries

Abstract

This study explored the drivers of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission (million metric tons) in the top 10 emitting countries (China, United States, India, Russian Federation, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Iran, Canada, and Saudi Arabia). The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was used to analyse the drive of CO2 emission change pertinent to population (thousand people), per capita income, energy intensity (metric ton energy/$GDP) and carbon intensity effects (metric ton CO2/ton energy) from 1991 to 2014. Further, analysis was carried out for the impact of CO2 emitted by different sectors (Agriculture, Energy, Fugitive, Industrial, Manufacturing, Transportation and Waste), the corresponding Human Development Index (HDI) and economic growth (EG%) using the panel model. This was done along with predictions for the total CO2 emissions over the next 16 years. The general results showed that the CO2 emission change has a significant effect by population and income, especially in China and the United states. Also, there is a strong relationship between human development index, economic growth, as well as Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) with sector CO2 emission for most of the investigated countries. The forecast of sectors CO2 emission for the year 2030, showed an increase of CO2 for all the countries, which requires a policy plan aimed at decreasing their CO2 emission for a safer environment.