Driving factors of China’s city-level carbon emissions from the perspective of spatial spillover effect

Abstract

We use the 2004–2016 China prefecture-level city data to construct a STIRPAT-based spatial econometric model as an empirical test for the driving factors of city carbon emissions. Results show that China’s city carbon emissions exert significant spatial spillover effects and high-emission club agglomeration characteristics. The relationship between city carbon emissions and the city’s own economic development has an “inverted U” shape, whereas city carbon emissions and the economic development of neighboring cities exhibit a “J”-shaped relationship. The improvement of energy efficiency is not only conducive to controlling the carbon emissions of the city itself but also beneficial to regulating carbon emissions in neighboring cities. The coal-based energy structure will significantly increase the carbon emissions of the city itself and those of the neighboring cities. Population density will increase the city’s own carbon emissions but reduce carbon emissions in neighboring cities due to the siphon effect. Traffic facilitation and industry structure in a city will lead to an increase in carbon emissions in neighboring cities. Foreign direct investment will benefit the city’s own carbon emission control.