Driving factors and predictions of CO2 emission in China's coal chemical industry

Abstract

As a significant basic industry for the national economic development, coal chemical industry is one of the main contributors to energy consumption and CO2 emission. In this paper, the CO2 emission in the time series of 2020 and 2030 was calculated and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method was employed to explore the driving forces of CO2 emission change. According to the industry development, the CO2 emission in 2020 and 2030 was tentatively predicted. The results show that China's coal chemical industry has experienced a significant increase in CO2 emission, from 177.87 million ton CO2 (MtCO2) to 427.19 MtCO2 in 2005–2015, with an average annual growth rate of 9.16%. Currently, the coal-to-ammonia industry is the largest contributor. According to the decomposition analysis, the economic growth and energy intensity are the two positive factors and the industry structure is a negative factor to carbon emission change. In 2020, the CO2 emission will be 617.34 MtCO2 under slow development scenario and 759.69 MtCO2 under rapid development scenario. In 2030, the CO2 emission will reach 1041.90 MtCO2 and 1440.13 MtCO2 under slow and fast development scenarios, respectively. The coal-to-olefins industry will take the place of coal-to-ammonia and turn to be the largest one in 2020 and 2030 if no CO2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies are adopted. It is probable that the contribution from coal-to-methanol will also play important role for CO2 emission due to its rapid development. In addition, by 2030, if coal-to-natural gas industry develops as planned, its CO2 emission will significantly increase, which has the potential to be equivalent to that of olefins industry.