Abstract
The region that comprises the Atlantic Forest is one of the most degraded areas of the planet, being especially vulnerable in climate change scenarios, which project a mean temperature increase between 2ºC and 3ºC by 2070 for the Brazilian Northeast region. This article aims to analyze the main drivers of socio-environmental vulnerability in the Atlantic Forest region that comprises the southernmost identity territory of Bahia (Brazil) and their potential consequences for coping with climate change. To this end, historical data on land use and occupation was spatialized and evaluated, along with socioeconomic indicators and legal environmental adequacy in the municipalities that make up this territory. The results indicate four structural drivers that generate regional vulnerabilities: the persistence of deforestation; the continuous expansion of monoculture areas; the maintenance of low levels of well-being of the population; as well as a picture of legal environmental liabilities. Based on the analysis of these data, strategies are proposed to increase the adaptive capacity to climate change in this region, especially considering the role of municipalities as a central actor in the implementation of adaptation actions by incorporating into their existing planning instruments indicators and strategies that address the multiple current challenges, especially when the federal government seems to be neglecting climate change.
Highlights
In the context of climate change, the adaptive capacity of the Atlantic Forest is compromised, as well as that of the associated social systems (BELLARD et al, 2014; LAPOLA et al, 2014; SCARANO; CEOTTO, 2015; SCARANO, 2017)
This article aims to analyze the main drivers of socioenvironmental vulnerability in the Atlantic Forest region that comprises the southernmost identity territory of Bahia (Brazil) and their potential consequences for coping with climate change
The results indicate four structural drivers that generate regional vulnerabilities: the persistence of deforestation; the continuous expansion of monoculture areas; the maintenance of low levels of well-being of the population; as well as a picture of legal environmental liabilities
Summary
In the context of climate change, the adaptive capacity of the Atlantic Forest is compromised, as well as that of the associated social systems (BELLARD et al, 2014; LAPOLA et al, 2014; SCARANO; CEOTTO, 2015; SCARANO, 2017). The loss and fragmentation of habitats, for example, hinder eventual adjustments of organisms and ecosystems to the new climatic conditions (IPCC, 2014; BUSTAMANTE et al, 2019), and may reduce the supply of ecosystem services to human populations (FISHER et al, 2014; REZENDE et al, 2018b; PIRES et al, 2018). TREVISAN et al, 2020), ecosystem services (METZGER et al, 2006), fauna in contexts of climate change (REECE et al, 2013; ZHAO et al., 2019), and human populations (HALLEGATE et al, 2016; ALVES, 2021). Forests are important elements for adaptation and resilience strategies, since their ecosystem services guarantee water supply and climate regulation, among others (IPBES, 2019; SCARANO, 2017; REZENDE et al, 2018b). The conversion of forests into conventional productive systems can lead, in the short and medium-term, to an improvement in traditional indexes of measurement of development, such as an increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
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