Drivers of urban growth in the Kathmandu valley, Nepal: Examining the efficacy of the analytic hierarchy process

Abstract

This article explores the driving factors of urban growth in Kathmandu Valley using analytic hierarchy process. The dynamic pattern of urban growth in the valley has been greatly influenced by seven driving factors: physical conditions, public service accessibility, economic opportunities, land market, population growth, political situation, and plans and policies. These factors have played important yet different roles in the city core, fringe, and rural areas. Among these factors, economic opportunities in the core, population growth in the fringe, and the political situation in the rural areas are identified as the highest impact factors of urban growth. Due to the lesser land availability in the city core, the land market factor had a smaller role in the core compared to the fringe and rural areas. The plans and policies factor is evaluated as minimally effective in all thematic areas. The physical condition factor had a low impact in the city core and fringe areas, but played a larger role than the economic opportunities, public service accessibility, and plans and policies in the rural areas. Due to spatial disparities in the public service establishments in the valley, the public services accessibility factor had a low impact in the rural area. A representative model of driving factors is presented to explain the overall relationship between the factors in the urban growth process of the metropolitan region.