Drivers of the shadow economy in European Union welfare states: A panel data analysis

Abstract

This paper carries out an extensive analysis of the drivers of the shadow economy (SE) in the welfare states of the European Union for the period 1995-2017. The empirical analysis is applied to the 28 EU11As we consider the period before the Brexit, when the United Kingdom is still EU member. member states, which are divided into the following clusters, according to their welfare model: Nordic, Liberal, Continental, Mediterranean, and Eastern models. The relationship between the SE and its determinants is analyzed based on the panel corrected standard errors (PCSEs) model in the presence of cross-section dependence and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) for investigating the long-run impact. The main empirical findings derived from a causality analysis reveal the important role played by economic development and welfare in the SE’s decline in the past two decades. Increasing social protection expenditure and government efficiency are also considered as drivers of the SE’s decline and for this reason, need to be included in the European Union’s policy for combating the SE. Based on the results from this empirical study it is argued that EU countries need to implement an integrated set of rules and regulations in order to reduce the level of the SE in the long run.