Drivers of the Economy in the Context of the Coronavirus Pandemic

E V Popov,The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration

doi:10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.1.001

E V Popov, The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.1.001

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Journal: Journal of Applied Economic Research	Publication Date: Jan 1, 2021
Citations: 1	License type: cc-by

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to systematize the drivers of the economy in a complicated epidemiological situation. The research hypothesis is that under the conditions of severe epidemiological restrictions, drivers of advanced digital technologies and modeling of the applications of these technologies are becoming a priority for economic development. The object of this study is economic activity in a difficult epidemiological situation. The subject matter of the research is economic relations that generate drivers-technologies and applications that ensure the progressive development of economic activity. The research method is logical system analysis of factors, technologies, and technological applications. The algorithm of this study comprised the following stages. First, we analyzed the results of published studies on the economics of complicated epidemiological situations. Then we highlighted the problems of economic activity. Further, we proposed solutions to these problems using advanced digital technologies and applications of these technologies. In conclusion, we analyzed possible directions for modeling the drivers of the economy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. The problems of economic activity during the coronavirus pandemic are highlighted. These problems include the problems of reducing contacts between people, transparency of information, taking into account people's needs, accounting for resources, and reallocation of resources. The solution of these problems is systematized based on the use of advanced digital technologies and applications of these technologies as drivers of the economy. Cloud technologies, digital platforms and blockchain technologies, as well as applications of digital technologies in the form of the sharing economy, the Internet of things and the concept of a smart city are analyzed. The possibility of modeling the drivers of economic development based on the apparatus of institutional economic theory is shown. In this case, economic activity modeling is based on four consecutive stages: design, distribution, measurement, and evolution of economic institutions. The theoretical significance of the results is the development of theoretical foundations for modeling economic activity in a complicated epidemiological situation. The practical significance of the results lies in the development of applied tools for predicting the development of economic activity in the event of a coronavirus pandemic.

Highlights

TThe deaths of 187 people in 12 countries through May 2007 from Type A (H5N1) avian influenza has raised fears that bird flu could trigger the influenza pandemic – perhaps even one on the scale of the Spanish flu that swept the world in 1918
While we are in some ways better prepared to deal with a public-health emergency on this scale than we were a century ago, the integrated nature of the global economy – the dependence on global markets for goods, services and capital – may leave us more vulnerable to a pandemic’s accompanying economic shocks
We can estimate the economic consequences of pandemics, based on computer simulations incorporating what we know about influenza transmission and the likely response by governments, as well as by markets

Summary

Introduction

TThe deaths of 187 people in 12 countries through May 2007 from Type A (H5N1) avian influenza has raised fears that bird flu could trigger the influenza pandemic – perhaps even one on the scale of the Spanish flu that swept the world in 1918. We used our own technical study, published last year by the Lowy Institute for International Policy and the Australian National University’s Center for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, to outline the likely global economic consequences of an influenza pandemic under four possible scenarios: The prediction of shocks associated with the spread of the flu follows the methods developed by McKibbin and Jong-Wha Lee for analyzing the economic costs of SARS, adapted to model the effect of a pandemic on each country.

Results

Conclusion