Abstract
In spite of considerable rice production gains over the past 50 years, Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming increasingly dependent on rice imports as demand is outpacing domestic supply. The serious economic and social strains caused by this have urged national leaders to address production deficits. The aim of this article is to analyse and discuss the drivers behind recent changes in rice production in Africa South of the Sahara, focusing on Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania and Mozambique. Considering the period 2002–2008, we model production performance and changes in production amongst 317 rice-growing households using multilevel and longitudinal data. We evaluate and discuss the role of three key processes: the role of commercial drivers, farm technology and macro-level conditions. We show that until 2002, production was driven by a combination of the three key processes considered, while during the period 2002–2008, production increases were primarily associated with area expansion and commercial drivers. This suggests that production lately has been more driven by processes of extensification than intensification. We also note that in none of the periods considered, the share of the state budget allocated to agriculture had a significant effect on production and that recent developments do not give any obvious support for an Asian-style state-driven Green Revolution in rice in Sub-Saharan Africa. The role of commercialization in explaining changes in production suggests that policies strengthening food staple markets in the sub-continent hold great potential for driving rice production in the near future. Due to the scarcity of available land, the possibilities of further growth in the rice sector are limited without an intensification of production. Hence, farmers also need to access new farm technology, and positive development of rice production would in turn contribute to an improvement of food security.
Highlights
Introduction to the rice grower panelThe majority of panel households in this study, or 88 %, are male-headed, with female-headed households making up the remaining 12 %.8 The h)ead of household was almost invariably the farm manager: 86 % of the households had a male farm manager and 14 % a female farm manager
Introduction to the data set The data derives from a longitudinal survey conducted in 2002 and 2008 within the framework of the Africa and Intensification (Afrint) project5, which focused on a group of countries located in what can be described as the African ‘maize and cassava belt’
Conclusions and implications for policy In this article, we have reported on the production performance amongst rice-growing households in five SubSaharan countries: Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania and Mozambique
Summary
Introduction to the rice grower panelThe majority of panel households in this study, or 88 %, are male-headed, with female-headed households making up the remaining 12 %.8 The h)ead of household was almost invariably the farm manager: 86 % of the households had a male farm manager and 14 % a female farm manager. The average age of the farms in the panel in 2008 is slightly lower than the 24 years that would have been the case if such partitioning of the original household had not occurred. In spite of considerable rice production gains over the past 50 years, Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming increasingly dependent on rice imports as demand is outpacing domestic supply. Considering the period 2002–2008, we model production performance and changes in production amongst 317 rice-growing households using multilevel and longitudinal data. While per capita consumption is declining in parts of Asia, the demand for rice has increased considerably in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) since 1995 and is growing more rapidly there than in any other continent [3]. Increased rice consumption can be traced to a combination of population growth, urbanization, changing consumer preferences and economic development [see e.g. 3, 5, 6].
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