Abstract
Livestock production and trade are critical for the food security and welfare of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa. In Cameroon, animal trade consists mainly of live cattle commercialized through livestock markets. Identifying the factors contributing to cattle price formation is critical for designing effective policies for sustainable production and for increasing food availability. In this study, we evaluated the influence of a range of individual- and market-level factors on the price of cattle that were sold in all transactions (n = 118,017) recorded over a 12-month period from 31 livestock markets in the main cattle production area of the country. An information-theoretic approach using a generalized additive mixed-effect model was implemented to select the best explanatory model as well as evaluate the robustness of the identified drivers and the predictive ability of the model. The age and gender of the cattle traded were consistently found to be important drivers of the price (p < 0.01). Also, strong, but complex, relationships were found between cattle prices and both local human and bovine population densities. Finally, the model highlighted a positive association between the number of incoming trading connections of a livestock market and the price of the traded live cattle (p < 0.01). Although our analysis did not account for factors informing on specific phenotypic traits nor breed characteristics of cattle traded, nearly 50% of the observed variation in live cattle prices was explained by the final model. Ultimately, our model gives a large scale overview of drivers of cattle price formation in Cameroon and to our knowledge is the first study of this scale in Central Africa. Our findings represent an important milestone in designing efficient and sustainable animal health management programme in Cameroon and ensure livelihood sustainability for rural households.
Highlights
In Cameroon, the livestock sector contributes 20% of the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), with trade of live animals and livestock products representing a major component of the agricultural sector [1]
Models 1 and 5 showed equivalent fitting performance with an adjusted R2 of 0.474 and 0.474, respectively, while minimizing their estimates of ΔAIC (Figure 2). Both models include: the week at which transactions were made; the age and sex of the animals involved in these transactions; the administrative division of the markets; the position of these markets in the cattle trade network in Cameroon; as well and the local densities of human and cattle reported at their location
Many epidemiologist and policy makers have argued about the importance of local trading behavior on the efficiency and resilience of animal health management programmes implemented in rural communities
Summary
In Cameroon, the livestock sector contributes 20% of the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), with trade of live animals and livestock products representing a major component of the agricultural sector [1]. Various studies have been carried out in Cameroon to evaluate the burden of livestock and zoonotic diseases [6,7,8,9,10,11,12], identify constraints for disease controls in pastoral and small-scale livestock husbandry and production system [13], and better understand how the cattle trade is structured [14]. Together, these studies provide a collection of information which would enable the veterinary services to better design animal health management programmes in Cameroon. Developing integrated animal health management programmes, requires a better understanding of the place (and the perceived value) of livestock in the local economy against which the acceptability and feasibility of intervention would be measured [15]
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