Drivers of High-cost Medical Complexity in a Medicaid Population.

Abstract

Efforts to improve outcomes for the 10% of patients using two thirds of health care expenditures increasingly include addressing social determinants. Empiric evidence is needed to identify the highest impact nonmedical drivers of medical complexity and cost. This study examines whether complex, highest cost patients have different patterns of critical life adversity than those with better health and lower utilization. Using a validated algorithm we constructed a complexity/cost risk patient profile. We developed and fielded a life experience survey (Supplemental Digital Content 1, http://links.lww.com/MLR/B920) to a representative sample, then examined how the prevalence of specific adversities varied between complex, high-cost individuals, and others. Surveys were sent to 9176 adult Medicaid members in Portland, Oregon. Our primary variable was high medical complexity health cost risk; an alternative specification combined health cost risk and actual utilization/cost. Our survey instrument measured exposure to early and later-life adversities. Compared with healthy individuals in our population, medically complex individuals had significantly higher rates of adversity. The greatest risk of medical complexity and cost was associated with substance use [odds ratio (OR), 4.1], homelessness (OR, 3.0), childhood maltreatment (OR, 2.8), and incarceration (OR 2.4). Those with the highest prior year acute care utilization and cost had the highest rates of these same factors: substance use (62.5%), homelessness (61.7%), childhood maltreatment (55.5%), and incarceration (52.1%). Clinical and policy strategies that mitigate high-impact social drivers of poor outcomes are likely critical for improving both health and costs for complex, high-needs patients.