Drivers of fluctuating embodied carbon emissions in international services trade

Abstract

<h2>Summary</h2> Service industries are generally considered "green" because of their marginal direct emissions; however, they account for 65% of the world gross domestic product and over 20% of total global trade in 2019. Here, we quantify the evolution of carbon emissions embodied in services trade from 2010 to 2018 and identify the driving factors of emission change at the global and regional scales. The annual growth rate of embodied emissions exported from the Global South (2.0%) is double that of the Global North (1.0%), with a different trade structure. We further identify three trade patterns of service export in the Global South based on the bilateral trade partnership and annual growth rate. Three kinds of specific emission mitigation policies are proposed based on the characters of services trade and different trade structures between different regions. The results provide quantitative evidence currently lacking and critical to policy decision making.