Abstract
Climate change is a serious threat to agriculture in many developing countries including Pakistan. Changing pattern of climate and its extreme conditions have already led to a decline in crop productivity. However, farmers in developing countries experience risks beyond just climate change, many of which are related to policy, strategy, and factor endowments. The impact of these risks have serious implications for food security, rural livelihood, farm households’ wellbeing, and, above all, their motive to adapt to these changes in the long-term. To have an in-depth knowledge of farmers’ perceptions about the changing climate, this study investigates various aspects such as the determinants of perception about various risk sources and the relevant mitigation and adaptation options. To do so, 480 farmers from agriculture-dominated Punjab province were randomly selected in order for us to evaluate their awareness levels, socioeconomic dynamics that influence their perceptions, and various factors that influence their perceptions to achieve the desired findings. We applied the principle factor analysis approach to ascertain major sources and strategies based on farmers’ perception and planned/practiced options. Further, regression analysis was done to evaluate the factors influencing the perception levels of farmers about risk sources. The results showed that majority of the farmers faced various risks, and were trying to adapt crop husbandry practices towards these perceived risks. Change in agricultural policies (3.96) was placed as the highest risk source, while the need for small dams/turbine schemes was the top priority for risk management strategy (mean value of 4.39). By observing the effect of farm and farmer’s characteristics on risk sources and risk management strategies, it was revealed that these characteristics ominously provoked farmers’ perspectives about risk sources and management strategies. The findings imply the need for coherent environmental policy that encompasses price stability, community-led adaptation campaigns, and easy/uninterrupted flows of information that enables the farming community to facilitate sustainable decision processes.
Highlights
The real threat to agriculture emerges from abrupt changes in climatic conditions and high variability that puts an immense pressure on farming decisions, compromising the sustainability of farm incomes [1]
The purpose of this study is to explore different risk sources and risk management strategies used by agricultural households, their perception about risks, and their relationship between farm and farmer’s characteristics and risk sources and risk management strategies
We identified the significant risk sources faced by Pakistani farmers as follows: changes in agricultural policies, prices of farm equipment, lack of farmers’ cooperation, supply of private capital, and human health problems
Summary
The real threat to agriculture emerges from abrupt changes in climatic conditions and high variability that puts an immense (negative) pressure on farming decisions, compromising the sustainability of farm incomes [1]. Such erratic changes, which are no doubt a great source of risk for this sector, have far reaching consequences for rural livelihoods, especially in a developing country like Pakistan, where more than 50% of the population lives in rural areas and predominantly depends on farm income to meet their daily food and fiber needs.
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