Abstract
AbstractThe climate response after cessation of carbon emissions is examined here, exploiting a single equation connecting surface warming to cumulative carbon emissions. The multicentennial response to an idealized pulse of carbon is considered by diagnosing a 1,000 year integration of an Earth system model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESM2M) and an ensemble of efficient Earth system model simulations. After emissions cease, surface temperature evolves according to (i) how much of the emitted carbon remains in the atmosphere and (ii) how much of the additional radiative forcing warms the surface rather than the ocean interior. The peak in surface temperature is delayed in time after carbon emissions cease through the decline in ocean heat uptake, which in turn increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the radiative forcing decreases through the excess atmospheric CO2 being taken up by the ocean and land.
Highlights
There are a wide range of climate projections for our future climate, usually based upon the surface temperature change for a cumulative carbon emission (Allen et al, 2009; Collins et al, 2013; Gillet et al, 2013; Matthews et al, 2009; Zickfeld et al, 2009)
The multicentennial climate response after cessation of carbon emissions may be understood using theory connecting surface warming to cumulative carbon emissions (Goodwin et al, 2015; Williams et al, 2016), involving an empirical heat budget and global changes in carbon inventories
Our theory is compared with climate model experiments using an integration (Frölicher & Paynter, 2015) of an Earth system model (GFDL ESM2M) and a large ensemble (104) of efficient Earth system models simulations (Goodwin, 2016)
Summary
There are a wide range of climate projections for our future climate, usually based upon the surface temperature change for a cumulative carbon emission (Allen et al, 2009; Collins et al, 2013; Gillet et al, 2013; Matthews et al, 2009; Zickfeld et al, 2009) This connection provides the basis of forming budgets of the maximum carbon emission compatible with surface warming targets (Collins et al, 2013; Matthews et al, 2012; Meinshausen et al, 2009). The key outcomes of the study are summarized (section 5)
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