Abstract
CO2 emissions are of global concern because of climate change. China has become the largest CO2 emitter in the world and presently accounts for 30% of global emissions. Here, we analyze the major drivers of energy-related CO2 emissions in China from 1978 when the reform and opening-up policy was launched. We find that 1) there has been a 6-fold increase in energy-related CO2 emissions, which was driven primarily (176%) by economic growth followed by population growth (16%), while the effects of energy intensity (−79%) and carbon intensity (−13%) slowed the growth of carbon emissions over most of this period; 2) energy-related CO2 emissions are positively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population growth rate, carbon intensity, and energy intensity; and 3) a portfolio of command-and-control policies affecting the drivers has altered the total emission trend. However, given the major role of China in global climate change mitigation, significant future reductions in China’s CO2 emissions will require transformation toward low-carbon energy systems.
Highlights
We find that 1) there has been a 6-fold increase in energy-related CO2 emissions, which was driven primarily (176%) by economic growth followed by population growth (16%), while the effects of energy intensity (−79%) and carbon intensity (−13%) slowed the growth of carbon emissions over most of this period; 2) energy-related CO2 emissions are positively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population growth rate, carbon intensity, and energy intensity; and 3) a portfolio of command-and-control policies affecting the drivers has altered the total emission trend
The largest absolute national contribution to global CO2 emissions now is from China [1, 2], which currently accounts for ∼30% of global emissions [3]
Several international organizations and databases, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, and the Climate Access Indicators Tool, as well as British Petroleum (BP) have published reports on China’s CO2 emissions, which were used in this study
Summary
The largest absolute national contribution to global CO2 emissions now is from China [1, 2], which currently accounts for ∼30% of global emissions [3]. This strategy is aimed at enhancing energy conservation, optimizing the energy structure, and supporting the development of nuclear energy and renewables [12] With these efforts, the increase in energy-related CO2 emissions has been reduced. We applied the Kaya identity method to analyze the observed trends This analytical tool allocates the contribution of the change in CO2 emissions into the product of 4 factors, namely population size (P), PCG, energy intensity (EI) per unit of GDP, and emission per unit of energy consumed (carbon intensity [CI]) [13]. We applied the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method [15], which is a commonly used IDA approach, with the help of the Kaya identity and econometric analysis method to quantitatively assess the determinants driving China’s CO2 emissions growth since 1978. Details of the Kaya identity, LMDI methods, and data sources are provided in Methods
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