Drivers of adaptation to water scarcity: Extraction capping in field experiments

Abstract

This research presents empirical evidence on what drives and inhibits cooperative behavior in groundwater management adaptive to climate change. Given vital character of water, its availability should not be only an explanatory variable in adaptation; but an issue subject to socio-physical explanations on how farmers adapt to declining water stocks. Instead of studying if farmers relying on groundwater adapt to status quo or projected climate conditions, a step forward is suggested in order to connect adaptation with sustainability. Water extraction caps compliance were used to test cooperation. Limits to aquifer withdrawals are operationalized via remaining time and quantities of water. Quantitative data were drawn from 668 experimental rounds, in framed field experiments implemented in dry regions in ten communities exposed to climate variability in Colombia. Empirical results suggest that socio-physical setting better explain the adoption of cooperative decisions. Intertemporal preferences on water allocations and physical variables have dissimilar marginal effects on cooperation. The deeper the water well is, the less the probabilities to cooperate in water conservation. Notwithstanding, the effect is dissimilar according to the remaining time for exhaustion of aquifer systems. Marginal effect is a step forward from using averages for water planning. If a groundwater management plan is put in place, the marginal characteristics of well-depths and residual time of aquifer existence, has implications for the successfulness of management strategies, which in turn have implications for long-term plans of water use efficiency as stated in Sustainable Development Goals.