Drivers and Implications of Land Cover Dynamics in Muger Sub-Basin, Abay Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Research on the landscape level dynamics of land cover and an understanding of the drivers responsible for these changes are useful for formulations of sustainable land management strategies and policy decisions. The pace and magnitude of the LCCs in Ethiopia are threatening the natural ecosystem and creating vulnerability to environmental hazards. This study used a combination of remotely sensed data, field interviews, and observations to examine the dynamics and identify the driving forces of LCC from 1986 to 2020 in the Muger sub-basin, Ethiopia. Multi-temporal satellite images were classified using supervised and unsupervised methods. Information from focus group discussions and the variable ranking method were used to explain the drivers of the observed changes. The study results showed a decline in forest cover from 11.80% in 1986 to 5.90% in 2020, which indicates a loss of 49.90% of the forest cover that existed in 1986. Bare land declined from 1.15% in 1986 to 0.57% in 2020. Similarly, grazing land declined from 1.52% in 1986 to 0.41% in 2020. Wetland also declined from 1.93% in 1986 to 0.31% in 2020. Conversely, during the same period, the proportions of cultivated land, built-up areas, shrubland, and water bodies have risen from 68.86% to 70.44%, from 0.03% to 1.53%, from 14.39% to 20.27%, and from 0.34% to 0.56%, respectively. Population growth and poor agricultural practices were identified as the main causes of LCC in the sub-basin. Therefore, the findings of this study suggest that implementation of comprehensive and integrated basin management policies and strategies will be indispensable to managing the risks and ensuring sustainable development in the larger Abay basin.