Drivers and impacts of inflation: a look at energy prices, exchange rate volatility, and stock markets

Abstract

In the last decade the world has experienced a number of global crises which triggered economic downturns. Impacts from the global financial crisis, the global COVID pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine trigger instability in financial markets. This paper explores similarities and differences between these crises based on inflation and its energy-related components. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is used to analyze both EU-level trends, as well as data for Romania. The findings indicate idiosyncratic shifts in the relationships between variables. The changes are often specific to individual shocks and the policy context. How policy makers respond to these shocks will also impact the fiscal space, the borrowing costs of countries, and the cost of servicing debt, which risks a return to the type of austerity policies that slowed down the post-financial crisis recovery. There is a need for more detailed research and investigations in policy responses designed to respond to ongoing events.