Driver-response relationships in a large shallow lake since the Anthropocene: Short-term abrupt perturbations versus long-term sustainable.

Abstract

Lakes, as integral social-ecological systems, are hotspots for exploring climatic and anthropogenic impacts, with crucial pathways revealed by continuous sediment records. However, the response of multi-proxies in large shallow lakes to typical abrupt events and sustained drivers since the Anthropocene remains unclear. Here, we explored the driver-identification relationships between multi-proxy peaks and natural and anthropogenic events as well as the attribution of short-term perturbations and long-term pressures. To this end, sediment core records, socio-ecological data, and documented events from official records were integrated into a large shallow lake (Dongting Lake, China). Significant causal cascades and path effects (goodness-of-fit: 0.488; total effect: -1.10; p < .001) were observed among catchment environmental proxies, lake biogenic proxies, and mixed-source proxies. The peak-event identification rate (PEIR) and event-peak driving rate were proposed, and values of 28.57%-46.43% and 50%-81.25% were obtained, respectively. The incomplete accuracy of depicting event perturbations using sediment proxies was caused by various information filters both inside and outside the lake. PEIRs for compound events were 1.41 (±0.72) and 1.09 (±0.46) times greater than those for anthropogenic-dominated and natural-dominated events, respectively. Furthermore, socio-economic activity, hydrologic dynamics, land-use changes, and agriculture exerted significant and persistent pressures, cumulatively contributing 55.3%-80.9% to alterations in sediment proxies. Relatively synergistic or antagonistic trends in temporal contributions of these forces were observed after 2000, which were primarily attributed to the "Grain for Green" project and the Three Gorges Dam. This study represents one of the few investigations to distinguish the driver-response relationship of multiple proxies in large shallow lakes under typical event perturbations and long-term sustained pressures since the Anthropocene. The findings will help policymakers and managers address ecological perturbations triggered by climate change and human activities over long-term periods.