Drawing aggregate inferences from individual level data: the utility of the notion of a normal vote

Abstract

Abstract. Instead of using an all‐encompassing model of individual voting behaviour for drawing aggregate inferences from individual level data, this article proposes an alternative approach by employing a normal vote‐model. Three levels of abstraction are distinguished in the notion of a normal vote: the normal vote‐concept, the normal vote‐approach and the normal vote‐model. A discussion of the most detailed empirical elaboration of the notion of the normal vote, that by Converse, is given and then an inventory of criticisms is made. Although valid in their own right, these criticisms fall short of damaging the very concept of a normal vote. Finally, it is argued that if one intends to transfer the concept to an electoral context other than the American, normal vote‐approaches (and consequently normal vote‐models) may differ across countries and over time.