Abstract

We monitored northern bat Eptesicus nilssonii (Keyserling & Blasius, 1839) acoustically along a 27 km road transect at weekly intervals in 1988, 1989 and 1990, and again in 2016 and 2017. The methodology of data collection and the transect were the same throughout, except that the insect-attracting mercury-vapour street-lights along parts of the road were replaced by sodium lights between the two survey periods. Counts along sections of the transect with and without street-lights were analysed separately. The frequency of bat encounters in unlit sections showed an average decline of 3.0% per year, corresponding to a reduction of 59% between 1988 and 2017. Sections with street-lights showed an 85% decline over the same period (6.3% per year). The decline represents a real reduction in the abundance of bats rather than an artefact of changed distribution of bats away from roads. Our study conforms with another long-term survey of the same species on the Baltic island of Gotland. Our results agree with predictions based on climate change models. They also indicate that the decline was caused directly by the disuse of the insect-attracting mercury-vapour street-lights, which may have resulted in lower availability of preferred prey (moths). In the 1980s, E. nilssonii was considered the most common bat in Sweden, but the subsequent decline would rather qualify it for vulnerable or endangered status in the national Red List of Threatened Species.

Highlights

  • Climate change models predict that species adapted to northern conditions will decline in the southern part of their range and the centre of distribution will retreat northwards, as the temperature royalsocietypublishing.org/journal/rsos R

  • We evaluated the most parsimonious generalized linear mixed-effect models (GLMM) to explain the variation in bat activity, based on Akaike’s information criteria scores for small sample sizes (AICc) and AICc weights (AICcw) [24,25]

  • Our results indicate that E. nilssonii has declined dramatically in the study area over the 30 years since the start of the survey

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Summary

Introduction

Climate change models predict that species adapted to northern conditions will decline in the southern part of their range and the centre of distribution will retreat northwards, as the temperature royalsocietypublishing.org/journal/rsos R. Among 2 bats, the northern bat Eptesicus nilssonii (Keyserling & Blasius, 1839) is the northernmost species in the world [4], and is expected to respond to global warming in accordance with these predictions. According to IUCN [6], ‘the species is widespread and abundant. No decline in population size has been detected, and there are no known widespread major threats’. Based on counts in several hundred bat hibernacula in continental Europe between 1993 and 2011, the population trend of E. nilssonii was reported to be ‘uncertain’ [7], not fully in agreement with the IUCN and the national evaluations

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