Dr. Richardson's Hygeia

Abstract

THE eloquent address in which Dr. Richardson has sketched the possible Health City of the future might furnish matter for much discussion—among other points, the probable statistics of the community. The author contemplates the possible reduction of the death-rate to 8 per 1,000 in the first generation, and to 5 or less in the next, as suggested by Mr. Chadwick. It sounds simple enough to talk of knocking 1 or 2 per 1,000 from a death-rate, and, so long as the rate is tolerably high, such as 20 or more, the effect is not so startling, but when we come to such low figures as 8 and 5 the difference becomes enormous. Thus, whereas a diminution from 21 to 20 raises the expectation of life by only 11/2 years, a fall from 9 to 8 raises it by 9, from 6 to 5 by 21 years, and from 5 to 4 by 40 years. We should thus have at 8 per 1,000 death-rate an expectation of life of 86 years, and probable mean duration of 120, whilst there would be cases of old people living to 160. Again, at 5 per 1,000 the ages would be respectively 137 years for expectation at birth, and old people living on to 250; at 4 per 1,000 the expectation would be 177, and old people would live to beyond 330. Compare these figures with Dr. Richardson's closing address, where he claims a modest 90 years as the proper length of human life.