Downside risk of major crops in selected six regions in North Dakota

Abstract

This paper investigates downside risk by utilising the value at risk (VaR) in the context of selected three different commodities, specifically corn, soybean, and hard red spring wheat (HRSW) in North Dakota (ND). This study finds that the downside risk of crop net return is significantly different in six different regions in ND. Growing corn in the North East region is estimated to has the highest risk, whereas the South Valley region has the lowest risk compared. Growing soybean in the North East region has the highest risk, whereas the South Valley region has the lowest risk. Lastly, growing HRS wheat in South Central has the highest financial risk, whereas the South Valley has the lowest risk. The highest risks are stem from the raising of corn and soybean in the production of the crop in the North East and raising the HRS wheat in South Central.