Downscaling and merging multiple satellite precipitation products and gauge observations using random forest with the incorporation of spatial autocorrelation

Abstract

Publicly available satellite precipitation products (SPPs) are essential inputs for hydrological models. However, the existing SPPs suffer from coarse resolutions and large uncertainties, which greatly hinder their widespread applications. Thus, to fully utilize the unique characteristics of each individual SPP, a spatial random forest (SRF)-based downscaling and merging (SRF-DM) method is proposed to fuse multiple SPPs and gauge observations in this paper. The proposed method incorporates spatial autocorrelation information between precipitation observations through a covariate. This covariate is estimated using ordinary kriging interpolation on spatial neighbors that have a high correlation with the target location. The proposed method was used to generate 1-km daily precipitation data using the datasets from five satellite precipitation products (IMERG, GSMaP, CHIRPS, MORPH, and PERSIANN) and gauge observations in the period from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 over Sichuan province, China. The performance of SRF-DM was compared with the original SPPs, XGBoost-based downscaling and merging (XGB-DM), two double-layer machine learning (ML) methods, namely RF-RF and RF-artificial neural network (RF-ANN), and three single ML methods, namely RF, ANN, and RF-based Merging Procedure (RF-MEP). The experimental results demonstrate the following findings: (i) SRF-DM is more accurate than the original SPPs across different temporal scales (i.e., daily, monthly, and seasonal) in terms of statistical and categorical accuracy measures, (ii) SRF-DM outperforms the six ML-based methods in estimating high precipitation and capturing spatial precipitation patterns, (iii) the spatial autocorrelation between neighboring precipitation data is the most significant factor in both downscaling and merging, and (iv) the performance of SRF-DM is influenced by gauge density, but it still yields good results even with a limited number of gauges. On the whole, SRF-DM is considered an effective tool for generating daily precipitation products with high accuracy and resolution, which is primarily attributed to its satisfactory performance in regions with diverse precipitation patterns and topography.