Doubling time of preoperative serum alpha-fetoprotein level can predict recurrence and prognosis after hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

15118 Background: It is quite important to predict postoperative recurrence or prognosis in the patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) before surgery. There have been few reports about the value of doubling time of preoperative serum a-fetoprotein (AFP) or protein induced by vitamin K absence (PIVKA-II) levels. Methods: Between January 2000 to December 2005, 160 consecutive HCC patients underwent hepatic resections in our institution. Serum AFP and PIVKA-II level was prospectively measured at least two points before surgery to calculate a doubling time. Clinical factors such as age, gender, BMI, etiology of hepatitis, degree of liver damage, gross tumor type, tumor size, tumor numbers, portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT), and AFP-L3 were concurrently investigated. Univariate and multivariate analyses were done to clarify predictive factors of postoperative recurrence and survival. Results: There were no relationship between preoperative levels and doubling time of both tumor markers. In univariate analysis, significant predictors of postoperative recurrence were AFP > 200 ng / ml, PIVKA-II > 200 mAU / ml, AFP-L3 > 10%, non-simple nodular type tumor, tumor size > 3 cm, multiple tumors, PVTT positive, and doubling time of AFP < 40 days. The significant prognostic factors were AFP > 200 ng / ml, HBs antigen positive, non-simple nodular type tumor, multiple tumors, PVTT positive, and doubling time of AFP < 40 days. In multivariate analysis, multiple tumors (odds ratio: 1.48), and doubling time of AFP < 40 days (odds ratio: 2.17) were significant predictors of recurrence. The significant prognostic factors were non-simple nodular type tumor (odds ratio: 6.41), multiple tumors (odds ratio: 7.62), and doubling time of AFP < 40 days (odds ratio: 6.49). Postoperative mean recurrence free survival time of HCC patients with doubling time of AFP < 40 days was only 2.8 months and mean survival time was 34 months. Conclusions: In HCC patients, doubling time of preoperative serum AFP level is useful to predict early recurrence and poor prognosis. Perioperative adjuvant therapy should be considered for such high risk patients. No significant financial relationships to disclose.