Double transitions? regional patterns of population ageing in poland

Abstract

.The number and geographical distribution of the aged, and how the distribution changes over time, have captured the attention of geographical gerontologists; the complexity and spatially differentiated nature of ageing is of considerable practical and theoretical import. This article seeks to link the traditional concerns of population geography to the social and spatial relations between old people, their health and places of residence and care. It does presuppose, however, that patterns and processes at the sub‐national level are also taken into account. Therefore, the aim of the article is to identify the aged and the localities or regions where they reside, within the particular context of a Polish post‐socialist society that has recently become integrated into the European mainstream. As such it is potentially subject to a double transition, where the political and economic changes cross path with the second demographic transition. To identify interrelationships between ageing and post‐socialist transition, areas vulnerable to ageing are defined using ageing indices. Projections of the share of elderly up to 2030, based on a component cohort method, are made with a view to identifying future change in the spatial patterns of ageing. Regional patterns of ageing are presented in social, political or economic context, to show their relation to the structural changes that societies such as Poland have been passing through during the period of transition to democracy and a market economy or are likely to go through in the near future.