Dose–response analysis of protracted absorbed organ dose and site-specific cancer incidence in Sweden after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident

Abstract

Background: Adult males in Sweden exhibit an increased risk of cancer associated with an increased absorbed dose to the colon from the Chernobyl accident. Methods: A closed cohort, with information on hunter status, included all individuals living in northern Sweden in 1986. Complete annual information on exposure to 137Cs at the dwelling coordinate was available for a total of 2,104,101 individuals. A nested case-control method with four controls matched for year of cancer diagnosis and year of birth, was used. Individual absorbed organ doses were calculated between 1986 and 2020 including external and internal exposure. Hazard ratios (HR) per mGy with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using conditional logistic regression adjusted for rural/nonrural habitat, education level and pre-Chernobyl cancer incidence 1980 to 1985. A total of 161,325 cancer cases in males and 144,439 in females were included. Results: The adjusted HR per mGy for all cancer sites combined was 1.027 (95% CI = 1.022, 1.031) in males and 1.011 (95% CI = 1.006, 1.017) in females. In a post hoc analysis accounting for both remaining confounding from hunter lifestyle and the pre-Chernobyl cancer incidence by county, the adjusted HR per mGy for all cancer sites combined was 1.014 (95% CI = 1.009, 1.019) in males and 1.000 (95% CI = 0.994, 1.006) in females. The post hoc analysis suggested an increased risk of cancer in the colon, pancreas, and stomach, respectively, in males, and lymphoma in females. Conclusions: Increased cancer risk estimates were found for some specific cancer sites but remaining uncontrolled confounding due to hunter lifestyle could not be ruled out.